THE KNESSET, THROUGH THE MARKETS
Every seat changes
the possibilities.
Build a coalition. Explore its range of outcomes. See what it takes to reach a majority.
61/ 120
THE MAJORITY LINEMarket snapshot/12 party marketsLast updated on
Concentration reached its upper search limit. The fit is near the multinomial limit; its concentration is not precisely identified.
Coverage gap: המילואימניקים והכלכלית (Reservists–New Economic Party) is not included in the seat model. Its available vote-share market needs an electoral-threshold and seat-allocation model. Current results allocate all 120 seats to the 12 tracked lists.
Coalition builder
Your selection, your scenario.Expected seats50.5 seats
Sum of party expectations
90% probability interval42–59
5th to 95th percentile
Chance of 61+ seats 3.3%
Reaching a Knesset majority
THE FULL PICTURE
Coalition seat distribution
Below 61 seats61+ seatsProbability of each seat total
View exact probabilities
| Seats | Probability | At least this many |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.0000% | 100.0000% |
| 25 | 0.0000% | 100.0000% |
| 26 | 0.0001% | 99.9999% |
| 27 | 0.0003% | 99.9998% |
| 28 | 0.0008% | 99.9995% |
| 29 | 0.0018% | 99.9987% |
| 30 | 0.0041% | 99.9968% |
| 31 | 0.0086% | 99.9927% |
| 32 | 0.0173% | 99.9842% |
| 33 | 0.0335% | 99.9669% |
| 34 | 0.0623% | 99.9333% |
| 35 | 0.1112% | 99.8710% |
| 36 | 0.1907% | 99.7598% |
| 37 | 0.3145% | 99.5691% |
| 38 | 0.4989% | 99.2546% |
| 39 | 0.7619% | 98.7556% |
| 40 | 1.1206% | 97.9937% |
| 41 | 1.5882% | 96.8731% |
| 42 | 2.1697% | 95.2849% |
| 43 | 2.8587% | 93.1152% |
| 44 | 3.6336% | 90.2566% |
| 45 | 4.4573% | 86.6230% |
| 46 | 5.2785% | 82.1657% |
| 47 | 6.0365% | 76.8872% |
| 48 | 6.6682% | 70.8506% |
| 49 | 7.1169% | 64.1824% |
| 50 | 7.3405% | 57.0656% |
| 51 | 7.3181% | 49.7251% |
| 52 | 7.0533% | 42.4070% |
| 53 | 6.5732% | 35.3537% |
| 54 | 5.9239% | 28.7805% |
| 55 | 5.1635% | 22.8566% |
| 56 | 4.3534% | 17.6931% |
| 57 | 3.5505% | 13.3398% |
| 58 | 2.8013% | 9.7893% |
| 59 | 2.1383% | 6.9880% |
| 60 | 1.5791% | 4.8497% |
| 61 | 1.1282% | 3.2707% |
| 62 | 0.7799% | 2.1425% |
| 63 | 0.5215% | 1.3626% |
| 64 | 0.3374% | 0.8411% |
| 65 | 0.2111% | 0.5037% |
| 66 | 0.1278% | 0.2925% |
| 67 | 0.0748% | 0.1647% |
| 68 | 0.0424% | 0.0899% |
| 69 | 0.0232% | 0.0475% |
| 70 | 0.0123% | 0.0243% |
| 71 | 0.0063% | 0.0121% |
| 72 | 0.0031% | 0.0058% |
| 73 | 0.0015% | 0.0027% |
| 74 | 0.0007% | 0.0012% |
| 75 | 0.0003% | 0.0005% |
| 76 | 0.0001% | 0.0002% |
| 77 | 0.0001% | 0.0001% |
| 78 | 0.0000% | 0.0000% |
120 seats shared across the tracked lists.
Party shares follow a Dirichlet distribution; seats are allocated multinomially. Bracket fit RMSE: 9.5 percentage points.
OTHER POSSIBILITIES
Same prices. Same assumptions.